Quality Receiving Production: An In-Depth Study to Examine Wide Receiver Effectiveness (DK Metcalf Example)
Not all wide receiver production is created equally.
When examining the effectiveness of wide receiver play at the NFL level, it can be easy to rely on raw statistics such as receptions, yards and touchdowns. However, those don’t tell the entire story.
There are various reasons that those statistics aren’t the end-all, be-all. Wide receivers play with different quarterbacks, face different defensive schemes and are slotted into different roles. Wide receivers can be effective route runners but suffer from poor quarterback play, or draw extra attention from coverage because of a lack of talent surrounding them.
In order to look deeper in a wide receiver’s effectiveness as a route runner, I’ve charted D.K. Metcalf’s 2020 season to this point as an example of a larger project. From looking at all of his film from the All-22 coaches tape, I’ve quantified numerous significant measures to better understand the effectiveness of NFL wide receivers.
Route Success
Part of the reason that raw receiving statistics don’t tell the entire story is that they are dependent on quarterback play. Take Allen Robinson of the Chicago Bears for example.
Robinson’s production has been hindered over the years by a parade of poor quarterback play, mostly catching passes from Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles.
Route Success is defined by how well the wide receiver ran a given route, regardless if a reception was made because that is reliant on a properly thrown pass. The receiver would have to create a clear passing window, on time, where a throw could or should have been made.
DK Metcalf Route Success, by Route:
Screen: 100%
Hitch: 75.0%
Quick-Out/Flat: 100%
Slant: 85.7%
Crosser: 91.7%
Curl: 88.9%
Comeback: 50.0%
Dig: 75.0%
Out: 66.7%
Corner: 100%
Post: 85.7%
Go: 35.0%
High Quality Route vs. High Quality Opponent
For some top NFL wide receivers, they continually draw the best cornerbacks in the NFL in coverage. This not only helps the offense by allowing the rest of the pass catchers to operate against lesser defensive backs, but is extra impressive when the wide receiver is able to produce against the best defensive backs that the league has to offer.
I wanted to be able to quantify how well each wide receiver performed against those top cornerbacks. High Quality Route vs. High Quality Opponent only takes the reps that the wide receiver ran a challenging route against difficult coverage from the top-tier of cornerbacks. This means that routes such as a wide receiver screen, or a hitch route against off coverage, haven’t been counted.
The top cornerbacks in the NFL can be subjective, so I only took those players who have recently been named to the All-Pro team.
DK Metcalf High Quality Route vs. High Quality Opponent:
Route Success: 65.2%
11/23 (47.8%)
292 receiving yards
1 touchdown
Route Tree
There are some wide receiver’s whose skill-set dictates the type of routes that they are generally asked to ran. For a receiver such as Mecole Hardman of the Kansas City Chiefs, most of the routes that he is targeted on include verticals or posts.
For that reason, I’ve looked into the wide receiver’s route success and target production for each route in the route tree. This tool can help better understand each individual wide receiver’s skill-set, and the type of route break where they find the most success.
DK Metcalf Route Tree:
Success vs. Coverage
Similar to the information discussed when looking into the route tree, some wide receivers find better success against man coverage compared to zone coverage. Splitting their route success and production dependent on coverage can help us understand exactly how defenses will choose to play against them in the future.
DK Metcalf vs. Man Coverage:
Route Success: 71.4%
28/49 (57.1%)
503 receiving yards
6 touchdowns
2 interceptions
DK Metcalf vs. Zone Coverage:
Route Success: 87.8%
30/41 (73.2%)
536 receiving yards
3 touchdowns
1 interception
DK Metcalf vs. Press Man Coverage
Route Success: 68.0%
13/25 (52.0%)
235 receiving yards
3 touchdowns
Area of Field
There are generally differences in skill-set for wide receivers who play primarily on the boundary vs. primarily in the slot. As far as route runners go, slots are going to be asked to run routes over the middle more often than an “X” or “Z” receiver.
I’ve broken down the area of the field where each target was thrown to DK Metcalf.
DK Metcalf between the #’s and the sideline:
30/48 (62.5%)
585 receiving yards
4 touchdowns
2 interceptions
DK Metcalf between the #’s and hash marks:
26/37 (70.3%)
400 receiving yards
4 touchdowns
1 interception
DK Metcalf in-between the hash marks:
2/5 (40.0%)
54 receiving yards
1 touchdown
Depth of Target
Wide Receivers that are vertical threats effect defenses differently than those who catch more underneath passes. Deep threats can dictate coverage more than horizontal route runners, as preventing explosive plays is always on the mind of defensive coordinators. This adds value to an offense, as multiple defensive backs could be committed to preventing the deep ball.
For that reason, a wide receiver’s success beyond 20 yards can be significant as it not only adds explosive plays, it opens up coverage for the rest of the route tree.
DK Metcalf on 20+ Yard Throws:
12/25 (48.0%)
466 receiving yards
3 touchdowns
2 interceptions
Additional Advanced Statistics
Yards After Catch:
312 yards on 54 receptions that YAC was available
Broken Tackles:
9
Drops:
5
Conclusion
Moving forward, you can expect these type of breakdowns for every well-known wide receiver in the NFL. They will come in neat, tightly-packed breakdowns that include easy-to-read charts and graphics.
Included in those future breakdowns will be their full target breakdown. That includes the time stamp of the play, the route that was ran, the type of coverage, the closest defender, the success of the route, the depth of target and the yards after the catch.
Moving forward, those will be behind the Pay Wall of this site in order to make the time commitment worth my while. Please subscribe for just $5 per month or $49.99 per year in order to see the rest of the NFL’s Quality Receiving Production.